by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2019.

... The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 84 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Mortgage applications were lower last week, driven by a 3 percent decrease in purchase applications. While purchase activity was still up 6 percent from a year ago, the index has now decreased for three straight weeks and reached its lowest point since March. Despite healthy demand, inadequate supply levels continue to hold back some would-be buyers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Rate movements were mixed, with the 30-year fixed rate remaining unchanged (at 4.08 percent), but the FHA rate decreasing to its lowest level since 2017 to 3.94 percent.”

Added Kan, “Refinance applications were essentially flat, but the components told different stories. Conventional refinances were up 1.1 percent, but government refinances were down almost 3 percent – led by a drop in VA applications.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) remained unchanged at 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to around 4% now.

Just about anyone who bought or refinanced over the last year or so can refinance now.   But it would take another significant decline in rates for a further large increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year.