by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2019.

... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 167 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“U.S. Treasury yields were volatile over the course of the week, as the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China continued to generate uncertainty among investors. Rates increased for the first time since the week of July 12, but were still 80 basis points lower than the beginning of the year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “With rates edging higher, refinances and purchase applications fell, at 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were still up around 2 percent year-over-year last week, but the drop in rates this summer have not yet led to a significant boost in activity. Uncertainty over the near-term economic outlook and low supply continue to be the predominant headwinds for prospective homebuyers.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 3.94 percent from 3.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to under 4%.

With lower rates, we saw a recent sharp increase in refinance activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year.