by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2019 03:47:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in August, unchanged from July’s preliminary estimate and down 1.3% from last August’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales will probably be down slightly from a year ago, with the SA/NSA gap reflecting this August’s lower business day count relative to last August’s.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of August should be about 2.1% lower than last August.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.5% from last August.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to released August existing home sales on Thursday at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.38 million SAAR.