by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2019 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, September auto sales, and the August trade deficit.

----- Monday, Sept 30th -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 50.4, unchanged from 50.4 in August.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

----- Tuesday, Oct 1st -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 50.0, up from 49.1 in August.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 49.1% in August, the employment index was at 47.4%, and the new orders index was at 47.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase.

Early: Reis Q3 2019 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

----- Wednesday, Oct 2nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 152,000 jobs added, down from 195,000 in August.

All day: Light vehicle sales for September.

The consensus is for sales of 17.0 million SAAR, unchanged from 17.0 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Thursday, Oct 3rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, up from 213,000 last week.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for September.

Early: Reis Q3 2019 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

----- Friday, Oct 4th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.

The consensus is for 145,000 jobs added, up from 130,000 in August (including temporary Census hires). The consensus is the unemployment rate will be unchanged at 3.7%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In August, the year-over-year change was 2.074 million jobs.

A key will be the change in wages.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $54.5 billion in August, from $54.0 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

2:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Opening Remarks, At Fed Listens: Perspectives on Maximum Employment and Price Stability, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.