by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2019 09:02:00 AM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million in September, down 2.4% from August’s preliminary estimate but up 3.5% from last September’s weak seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a higher YoY increase, with the SA/NSA gap reflecting this September’s higher business day count relative to last September.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of September should be down about 3.2% from a year earlier.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.6% from last September.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to released September existing home sales on Tuesday, October 22nd at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.45 million SAAR.