by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2019 08:55:00 AM

Something to note on employment:

A tentative agreement has been reached at GM, however the GM workers were on strike during the BLS reference period (includes the 12th of the month). That means employment in October will be reduced by the number of workers on strike (approximately 48,000) plus some collateral layoffs in automotive suppliers.

The BLS counts striking workers as unemployed.

JP Morgan economist Daniel Silver estimates there will be 75,000 fewer jobs in October due to the strike. If the agreement is ratified, these jobs will return in the November report.