by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2019 04:37:00 PM

The BEA released their estimate of October vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated sales of 16.55 million SAAR in October 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 3.4% from the September sales rate, and down 5.3% from October 2019.

Sales in 2019 are averaging 16.91 million (average of seasonally adjusted rate), down 1.6% compared to the same period in 2018.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for October (red).

The GM strike might have impacted sales in October.

A small decline in sales to date this year isn't a concern - I think sales will move mostly sideways at near record levels.

This means the economic boost from increasing auto sales is over (from the bottom in 2009, auto sales boosted growth every year through 2016).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.55 million SAAR.