by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2019 04:28:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased slightly to 0.67% in October, from 0.68% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.79% in October 2018.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

This matches the delinquency rate in July and August of this year, as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since June 2007.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 2.51% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (4% of portfolio), 4.25% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (94% of portfolio), only 0.33% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.4 to 0.6 percent or so to a cycle bottom.

Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.