Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.40 million in December, up 0.9% from November’s preliminary pace and up 8.0% from last December’s weak seasonally-adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a significantly higher YOY gain, with the SA/NSA difference reflecting this December’s higher business day count comparted to last December.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of December was down by about 11.1% from a year earlier.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 7.0% from last December.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release December existing home sales on Wednesday, January 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.43 million SAAR.