From Merrill Lynch
We lowered 1Q GDP growth by 0.7pp to 1.0% to reflect a likely steeper drop in inventories. As a partial offset, we boosted 2Q GDP to 2.0%. 4Q19 is tracking 2.2%. [Jan 10 estimate]
emphasis added
From the
NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.2% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 10 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed:
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 10, unchanged from January 7 after rounding. [Jan 10 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.1% and 2.3% annualized in Q4.
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