by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2020 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the January employment report.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys, the December trade deficit, and January vehicle sales.

----- Monday, Feb 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.5, up from 47.2 in December.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 47.2% in December, the employment index was at 45.1%, and the new orders index was at 46.8%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for January.

----- Tuesday, Feb 4th -----
Early: the BEA will release Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.8 million SAAR in January, up from 16.7 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for December.

----- Wednesday, Feb 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 159,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 202,000 added in December.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $48.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $43.1 billion in November.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for January.

----- Thursday, Feb 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, down from 216,000 last week.

----- Friday, Feb 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 161,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.5%.

There were 145,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In December the year-over-year change was 2.108 million jobs.

Note: The annual benchmark revision will be released with the January report. The preliminary estimate of the Benchmark revision "indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000".

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.