by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2020 01:53:00 PM

There are some sectors that will be hit hard over the next several months: hotels, airlines, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting events, and convention centers.   People will probably avoid these places as part of social distancing.

I already track weekly hotel occupancy data from STR, and the occupancy data is starting to show a sharp decline due to COVID-19.   I'll also be posting updates on monthly visitor and convention traffic in Las Vegas.

For high frequency data, I'm going to start tracking domestic box office numbers from Box Office Mojo every Friday.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows cumulative domestic box office for this year (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.

This data is through the week ending March 12, 2020. (The last few weeks were revised slightly)

There are many factors impacting box office numbers, but this will give an idea if people are avoiding theaters. Note that some potential block busters have been moved to the Fall, and that will keep down box office sales.

Currently 2020 is tracking close to the minimum of the previous four years, but hasn't collapsed yet.