by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2020 09:28:00 AM

The BEA released their estimate of March vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated light vehicle sales of 11.37 million SAAR in March 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 32.1% from the revised February sales rate, and down 34.1% from March 2019.

Sales in February were revised down from 16.83 million SAAR to 16.73 million SAAR.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March 2020 (red).

My view - before the health crisis - was that sales  would move mostly sideways at near record levels this year.  Going forward, the impact of COVID-19 will be significant.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 11.37 million SAAR.

Sales collapsed in the second half of March, and will really collapse in April - and will fall below the lowest point of the Great Recession of 9.0 million SAAR.