by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2020 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 14, 2020.

... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 38 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 27 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Positive economic data reported last week on retail sales, as well as a large U.S. Treasury auction, drove mortgage rates to their highest level in two weeks. The rise in rates dampened refinance activity, but purchase applications continued their strong run and were 27 percent higher than a year ago – the third straight month of year-over-year increases,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Conventional purchase applications drove last week’s increase, while applications for government loans decreased. The housing market remains a bright spot in the current economic recovery and these results, combined with July data on housing starts and homebuilder optimism, suggest that housing supply could be increasing to better meet the strong demand for buying a home.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.13 percent from 3.06 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has been very volatile recently depending on rates and liquidity.

But with record low rates, the index is up significantly from last year.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 27% year-over-year.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).