by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2020 09:11:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3 month average of July, August and September prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Soared to 7% in September

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.0% annual gain in September, up from 5.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.2%, up from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% year-over-year gain, up from 5.3% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in September. Phoenix led the way with an 11.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 10.1% increase and San Diego with a 9.5% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2020 versus the year ending August 2020.
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The National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in September. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. In September, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, and after seasonal adjustment.

Housing prices were notably – I am tempted to say ‘very’ – strong in September,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index gained 7.0% relative to its level a year ago, well ahead of August’s 5.8% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 6.2% and 6.6%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in September. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have September data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in September than they had done in the 12 months ended in August.

“A trend of accelerating increases in the National Composite Index began in August 2019 but was interrupted in May and June, as COVID-related restrictions produced modestly-decelerating price gains. Our three monthly readings since June of this year have all shown accelerating growth in home prices, and September’s results are quite strong. The last time that the National Composite matched September’s 7.0% growth rate was more than six years ago, in May 2014. This month’s increase may reflect a catch-up of COVID-depressed demand from earlier this year; it might also presage future strength, as COVID encourages potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. The next several months’ reports should help to shed light on this question.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.3% in September (SA) from August.

The Composite 20 index is up 1.3% (SA) in September.

The National index is 22.2% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.4% (SA) in September.  The National index is up 65% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.2% compared to September 2019.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.6% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 7.0% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 19 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

Price increases were above expectations.  I'll have more later.