by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2020 10:14:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decrease 2.5% in November

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 2.5% from October to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million in November. However, sales in total rose year-over-year, up 25.8% from a year ago (5.32 million in November 2019).
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Total housing inventory at the end of November totaled 1.28 million units, down 9.9% from October and down 22% from one year ago (1.64 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 2.3-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.5 months in October and down from the 3.7-month figure recorded in November 2019.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in November (6.69 million SAAR) were down 2.5% from last month, and were 25.8% above the November 2019 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.28 million in November from 1.42 million in October.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was down 22% year-over-year in November compared to November 2019.

Months of supply decreased to 2.3 months in November (an all time low).

This was close to the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.