by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the January employment report.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, the December trade deficit, and January vehicle sales.

----- Monday, Feb 1st -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.0, down from 60.7 in December.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for January.

----- Tuesday, Feb 2nd -----
10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for December.

10:00 AM: the Q4 2020 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.3 million SAAR in January, unchanged from 16.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

----- Wednesday, Fed 3rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 45,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 123,000 lost in December.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for January.

----- Thursday, Feb 4th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 820 thousand from 847 thousand last week.

----- Friday, Feb 5th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 50 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.7%.  There were 140 thousand jobs lost in December, and the unemployment rate was at 6.7%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.1 billion in November.