by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 11:48:00 AM

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 16.63 million SAAR in January 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 2.5% from the December sales rate, and down 1.5% from January 2020.

This was above the consensus estimate of 16.3 million SAAR.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for January (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month.

Since April, sales have increased, but are still down  year-over-year,

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.63 million SAAR.

This was the highest sales rate since before the start of the pandemic, and a solid start for 2021 (although down year-over-year).