by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2021 11:40:00 AM

Some forecasters have increased their 2021 forecasts significantly, and see possible further upside. However, there is ongoing concern about the pandemic, and the impact of the COVID variants.

From Merrrill Lynch:

2021 is poised for a robust rebound in real activity, with growth likely to reach 6.0%. Strong fiscal support and a successful vaccine rollout will provide a spark particularly in 2Q and 3Q. [Q1 GDP of 4.0%] [Feb 5 estimate] emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +5.0%. [Feb 5 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.8% for 2021:Q1. [Feb 5 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 4.6 percent on February 5, down from 6.0 percent on February 1 [Feb 5 estimate]