by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 09:26:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged From Last Week

Mortgage rates have been extremely stable given their proximity to all-time lows. Past precedent suggests one of two things when rates set records: a slow grind lower with additional periodic records or a rather abrupt bounce back in the other direction.

The 2nd half of 2020 was definitely characterized by the aforementioned slow grind with at least 20 separate days resulting in record low rates by December 21st. Since then, rates have gone no lower, but apart from a brief stint in early January, they really haven't gone appreciably higher either. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that the broader bond market is indeed telling mortgage rates to rise. Specifically, 10yr Treasury yields--a perennial travel companion for 30yr fixed mortgage rates--have been rising consistently since August 2020.

Mortgage rates were largely immune to that Treasury trend due to volatility at the beginning of the pandemic. Mortgage rates simply weren't able to drop as quickly as Treasury yields and have been closing the gap ever since. [30 year fixed 2.83%]
emphasis added

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• At 2:00 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, State of the U.S. Labor Market, At the Economic Club of New York Webinar