by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 10:33:00 AM

Note: Starting this week, the year-over-year comparisons are easy - since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic - but occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels.

The occupancy rate is down 25.8% compared to the same week in 2019. Kelsey Fenerty at CoStar also suggests comparing to 2019: Indexing to 2019 Provides Better Hotel Performance Comparisons

From CoStar: STR: US Occupancy Reaches Highest Level in a Year With Pandemic Comparisons

U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level in a year, according to STR‘s latest data through March 13.

March 7-13, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020):

• Occupancy: 52.1% (-1.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$102.62 (-14.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$53.45 (-15.8%)

Year-over-year percentage changes are now more favorable as comparisons have shifted to pandemic-affected weeks from 2020. When indexed against 2019 levels, the U.S. has recaptured between 70-75% of occupancy in recent weeks.

Florida, lifted by Spring Break and Bike Week, was most represented among the leaders in week-to-week occupancy gains.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020).

Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.