by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2021 09:22:00 AM
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
Industrial Production Decreased 2.2 Percent in February
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
In February, total industrial production decreased 2.2 percent. Manufacturing output and mining production fell 3.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively; the output of utilities increased 7.4 percent.Click on graph for larger image.
The severe winter weather in the south central region of the country in mid-February accounted for the bulk of the declines in output for the month. Most notably, some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities, and plastic resin plants suffered damage from the deep freeze and were offline for the rest of the month. Excluding the effects of the winter weather would have resulted in an index for manufacturing that fell about 1/2 percent and in an index for mining that rose about 1/2 percent. Both indexes would have remained below their pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels.
At 104.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in February was 4.2 percent lower than its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 1.7 percentage points in February to 73.8 percent, a rate that is 5.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.
emphasis added
This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still below the level in February 2020.
Capacity utilization at 73.8% is 5.8% below the average from 1972 to 2020.
Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.
Industrial production decreased in February to 104.7. This is 4.2% below the February 2020 level.
The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.