by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2021 04:35:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.29 million in February, down 6.0% from January’s preliminary pace but up 10.4% from last February’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was significantly larger than the big decline in January. The catalyst for the inventory drop in both months appears to have been very low levels of new listings – almost all realtor reports that include new listings showed a sizable YOY decline.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 14.5% from last February.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release February existing home sales on Monday, March 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.51 million SAAR.