by Calculated Risk on 3/03/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 26, 2021.

... The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates jumped last week on market expectations of stronger economic growth and higher inflation. The 30-year fixed rate experienced its largest single-week increase in almost a year, reaching 3.23 percent – the highest since July 2020,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The overall share of refinances declined for the fourth consecutive week, and conventional refinance applications fell more than 2 percent to the lowest level in four months. Government refinance applications historically lag the more rate-sensitive movements of conventional applications, and that was true last week, as both FHA and VA refinancing volumes increased.”

Added Kan, “The housing market is entering the busy spring buying season with strong demand. Purchase applications increased, with a rise in government applications – likely first-time buyers – pulling down the average loan size for the first time in six weeks.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.23 percent from 3.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.48 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has been volatile recently depending on rates.

With near record low rates, the index remains up from last year (but will be down year-over-year next week - since rates fell sharply at the beginning of the pandemic).

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 1% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).