by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2021 11:34:00 AM

There was a research note out yesterday that suggested GDP could be back to pre-recession levels by the end of Q1 2021.

Real GDP peaked at $19.254 trillion in Q4 2019 SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted, Annual Rate, 2012 Dollars). In Q4 2020, real GDP was at $18.784 trillion. To increase to the previous peak, real GDP would have to increase at a 10.4% annual rate in Q1 (or upward revisions to previous quarters). That is very unlikely.

From Merrrill Lynch:

We continue to track 5.5% for 1Q GDP. [Mar 12 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 8.6% for 2021:Q1 and 4.0% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 12 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.4 percent on March 8, up from 8.3 percent on March 5. [Mar 8 estimate]