by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2021 11:21:00 AM

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are declining, whereas the forecasts of economists have been increasing anticipating strong growth in economic activity in March due to the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. From BofA yesterday:

"Total card spending, as measured by BAC aggregated card data, increased 45% 1-yr and 23% 2-yr for the 7-days ending Mar 20.  The strong gain owes to the latest stimulus: total card spending for stimulus recipients is running 40% above the Feb avg."

From Merrill Lynch:

1Q GDP tracking stands at 7.0% qoq saar. [Mar 26 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Mar 26 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.1% for 2021:Q1 and 0.7% for 2021:Q2. [Mar 26 estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 4.7 percent on March 26, down from 5.4 percent on March 24. [Mar 26 estimate]