by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2021 10:12:00 AM

From the NAR: Housing Market Reaches Record-High Home Price and Gains in March

Existing-home sales fell in March, marking two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The month of March saw record-high home prices and gains. While each of the four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month drops, all four areas welcomed year-over-year gains in home sales.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 3.7% from February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.01 million in March. Sales overall climbed year-over-year, up 12.3% from a year ago (5.35 million in March 2020).
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Total housing inventory at the end of March amounted to 1.07 million units, up 3.9% from February's inventory and down 28.2% from one year ago (1.49 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally up from February's 2.0-month supply and down from the 3.3-month supply recorded in March 2020. Inventory numbers continue to represent near-historic lows; NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982.
emphasis added

Note: February was revised up from 6.22 million to 6.24 million SAAR.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in March (6.01 million SAAR) were down 3.7% from last month, and were 12.3% above the March 2020 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.07 million in March from 1.03 million in February.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was down 28.2% year-over-year in March compared to March 2020.

Months of supply increased to 2.1 months in March from 2.0 months in February.

This was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.