by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2021 11:41:00 AM

In December 2018, Professor Shiller wrote in the NY Times: The Housing Boom Is Already Gigantic. How Long Can It Last?

We are, once again, experiencing one of the greatest housing booms in United States history.

How long this will last and where it is heading next are impossible to know now.

But it is time to take notice: My data shows that this is the United States’ third biggest housing boom in the modern era.

I noted at the time that I wasn't concerned. My analysis showed that the then current "boom" in prices (as of the end of 2018) was less or somewhat similar to the price booms of the late '70s and late '80s, and nothing like the "housing bubble".

Since Shiller wrote that article in 2018, house prices have increased 16% nationally (from November 2018 to January 2021) according to the Case-Shiller index. Prices in Phoenix are up 25%, and in Seattle and San Diego, up about 20% since that article was written.

I'll update my analysis soon, but the current price boom is still less than the bubble, and but now more than the booms in the late '70s and late 80s.