by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2021 10:29:00 AM

Government transfer payments increased sharply in March compared to February, and were $4.8 trillion (on SAAR basis) above the February 2020 level (pre-pandemic).  Most of the increase in transfer payments - compared to the levels prior to the crisis - is from unemployment insurance and "other" (includes direct payments). 

This table shows the amount of unemployment insurance and "Other" transfer payments since February 2020 (pre-crisis level).  The increase in "Other" was mostly due to parts of the relief acts including direct payments.

There was a large increase in "Other" in March due to the American Rescue Plan Act.

Selected Transfer Payments Billions of dollars, SAAR
	Other	Unemployment Insurance
Feb-20	$506	$28
Mar-20	$515	$74
Apr-20	$3,379	$493
May-20	$1,360	$1,356
Jun-20	$758	$1,405
Jul-20	$760	$1,331
Aug-20	$692	$636
Sep-20	$936	$359
Oct-20	$732	$304
Nov-20	$620	$281
Dec-20	$654	$304
Jan-21	$2,357	$556
Feb-21	$782	$535
Mar-21	$4,751	$541

A key measure of the health of the economy (Used by NBER in recession dating) is Real Personal Income less Transfer payments.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments since 1990.

This measure of economic activity increased 0.9% in March, compared to February, and was down 1.2% compared to February 2020 (previous peak).

Another way to look at this data is as a percent of the previous peak.

Real personal income less transfer payments was off 8.1% in April 2020. That was a larger decline than the worst of the great recession.

Currently personal income less transfer payments are still off 1.2% (dashed line).