by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2021 10:16:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 863 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down sharply, combined.

Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent below the revised March rate of 917,000, but is 48.3 percent above the April 2020 estimate of 582,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

This was the highest sales rate for April since 2007.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in April to 4.4 months from 4.0 months in March.

The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is close to the low end of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 316,000. This represents a supply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is a little lower than normal.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In April 2021 (red column), 78 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 52 thousand homes were sold in April.

The all time high for April was 116 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for April was 30 thousand in 2011.

This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down sharply, combined. I'll have more later today.