by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the July employment report.

Other key reports include ISM manufacturing and services indexes, July vehicle sales, and the Trade deficit for June.

----- Monday, August 2nd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.9, up from 60.6 in June. The employment index was at 49.9% in June, and the new orders index was at 66.0%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for July.

----- Tuesday, August 3rd -----
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for June

All Day: Light vehicle sales for July from the BEA. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.7 million SAAR in July, up from 15.4 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, August 4th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for July. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 675 thousand payroll jobs added in July, down from 692 thousand added in June.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for July.   The consensus is for a reading of 60.4, up from 60.1.

----- Thursday, August 5th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $73.9 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $71.2 Billion the previous month.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 390 thousand from 400 thousand last week.

----- Friday, August 6th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for July.   The consensus is for 900,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.7%.

There were 850,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 5.9%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".