by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 07:37:00 PM

First, on the economic impact of the delta variant from BofA today:

'Our big data business cycle indicator is at risk of a regime shift from "boom" to "soft patch" because of the Delta wave.'

Florida and Texas are in a serious crisis (see graphs and comments at bottom).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 16th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 22nd.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 353,859,894, as of a week ago 348,966,419. Average doses last week: 0.70 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.5%	71.3%	70.4%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.4	167.1	165.6	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	114,190	112,751	96,453	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	62,041	59,755	45,456	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	492	479	406	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.8%, Wisconsin at 68.5%, Kansas at 68.0%, South Dakota at 67.6%, Nevada at 67.4%, Texas at 67.1%, and Iowa at 66.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

The second graphs shows hospitalizations in Florida.

Hospitalizations in Florida are already at a record level, and Florida is running out of ICU beds.

According to data from the HHS on hospital utilizations, over 90% of ICU beds in Florida are occupied, and more than half of those are COVID patients.  Grim

And on Texas, from the Texas Tribune: “I am frightened by what is coming”: Texas hospitals could soon be overwhelmed by COVID-19 caseload, officials say

Texas hospitals are on the brink of catastrophe, close to being completely overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, leaders of some of the state’s largest hospitals told state lawmakers Tuesday.

Official after official used their strongest descriptions to get the point across to legislators: Hospitalizations are rising too fast for them to keep up with, and it may be too late to do anything about it.

“While more vaccination is the only thing that can ultimately bring this pandemic to an end, we need more decisive actions now to prevent a catastrophe the likes of which we only imagined last year,” Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, CEO of Harris Health System in Houston, told the Texas Senate Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday.

This data is from the CDC.