by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2021 05:35:00 PM

The headline unemployment rate of 5.2% significantly understates the current situation. 

Here is a table that shows the current number of unemployed and the unemployment rate (as of August 2021). 

Then I calculated the unemployment rate by including the number of people that have left the labor force since early 2020, and the expected growth in the labor force.

	Unemployment Rate	Unemployed (000s)	Left Labor Force (000s)	Expected Labor Force Growth (000s)	Adjusted Unemployment Rate
Feb-20	3.5%	5,717	0	0	3.5%
Mar-20	4.4%	7,185	-1,727	100	5.5%
Apr-20	14.8%	23,109	-7,970	200	19.0%
May-20	13.3%	20,975	-6,248	300	16.7%
Jun-20	11.1%	17,697	-4,651	400	13.8%
Jul-20	10.2%	16,308	-4,363	500	12.8%
Aug-20	8.4%	13,542	-3,630	600	10.8%
Sep-20	7.8%	12,535	-4,370	700	10.7%
Oct-20	6.9%	11,049	-3,730	800	9.4%
Nov-20	6.7%	10,728	-3,912	900	9.4%
Dec-20	6.7%	10,736	-3,881	1,000	9.4%
Jan-21	6.3%	10,130	-4,287	1,100	9.4%
Feb-21	6.2%	9,972	-4,237	1,200	9.3%
Mar-21	6.0%	9,710	-3,890	1,300	9.0%
Apr-21	6.1%	9,812	-3,460	1,400	8.8%
May-21	5.8%	9,316	-3,513	1,500	8.6%
Jun-21	5.9%	9,484	-3,362	1,600	8.7%
Jul-21	5.4%	8,702	-3,101	1,700	8.1%
Aug-21	5.2%	8,384	-2,911	1,800	7.9%

As the economy recovers, many of the people that left the labor force will probably return, and there will likely be more entrants into the labor force (although recent demographic data has been dismal).

It would be a mistake to just look at the headline unemployment rate to assess the current situation.