by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2021 12:42:00 PM

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

	Merrill	Goldman	GDPNow
7/30/21	7.0%	9.0%	6.1%
8/20/21	4.5%	5.5%	6.1%
9/10/21	4.5%	3.5%	3.7%
9/17/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.6%
9/24/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.7%
10/1/21	4.1%	4.25%	2.3%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

Following this week's data, 3Q GDP tracking dropped to 4.1% qoq saar from 4.5% previously. The August deterioration in the goods trade deficit was the main driver. [Oct 1 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

Following this morning’s data, we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 1 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 2.3 percent on October 1, down from 3.2 percent on September 27. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 1.4 percent and 12.9 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.36 percentage points to -1.27 percentage points. [Oct 1 estimate]