by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2021 09:14:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.5% Annual Home Price Gain in September

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.5% annual gain in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.8%, down from 18.6% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, down from 19.6% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in September. Phoenix led the way with a 33.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 27.7% increase and Miami with a 25.2% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2021 versus the year ending August 2021.
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Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.0% month-over-month increase in September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. In September, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments.

“If I had to choose only one word to describe September 2021’s housing price data, the word would be ‘deceleration,’ says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Housing prices continued to show remarkable strength in September, though the pace of price increases declined slightly.The National Composite Index rose 19.5% from year-ago levels, with the 10- and 20-City Composites up 17.8% and 19.1%, respectively. This month, however, the rate of price growth began to decline, as each of our three composites rose less in September than in August.
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“We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven by households’ reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents simply an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. September’s report is consistent with either explanation.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.8% in September (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 1.0% (SA) in September.

The National index is 46% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.2% (SA) in September.  The National index is up 98% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 17.8% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 19.1% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.5% year-over-year.

Price increases were slightly below expectations.  I'll have more later.