by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2021 12:38:00 PM

The MBA released their updated Economic and Mortgage forecasts. Their prior forecast (included with several others) is here: 2022 Housing Forecasts: Second Look

A few highlights:

• Total mortgage originations are expected to decrease to $2.61T in 2022, as more of the activity shifts to the purchase market.
      - Refinance originations are expected to drop to $870B.
      - Purchase originations are forecast to eclipse 2021’s record high and reach $1.74T, backed by strong housing demand and rising home prices and sales.

• Home-price growth is forecast to moderate to 5.1%.

• Mortgage rates are expected to rise throughout the year and reach 4.0% by December 2022.

• Economic growth is forecast to be at 4.0% in 2022, with the unemployment rate declining to 3.5% by the end of the year.