by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2021 10:08:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 744 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down significantly.

Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.4 percent above the revised October rate of 662,000, but is 14.0 percent below the November 2020 estimate of 865,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in November to 6.5 months from 7.1 months in October.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 402,000. This represents a supply of 6.5 months at the current sales rate."

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In November 2021 (red column), 53 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in November.

The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010.

This was below expectations of 766 thousand SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I'll have more later today.