by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2022 07:23:00 PM

My December Employment Preview

Goldman December Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December.   There were 120 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.  The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added in December, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1%.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	62.4%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	207.0	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	586,391	315,851	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	95,250	67,842	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	1,245	1,088	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are at record levels.  It appears likely hospitalizations will exceed the previous 7-day average record of 124,031 a year ago.

Fortunately, deaths are still well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.