by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2022 03:09:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

A brief excerpt:

Adding Houston, Memphis, Nashville, New Hampshire, North Texas and Portland

This is the second look at local markets in January. I’m tracking about 30 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 30 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

My view is that if the housing market starts slowing, it will show up in inventory first (not yet!).

The following data is important, especially active inventory. One of the key factors for house prices is supply and tracking local inventory reports will help us understand what is happening with supply.

On a national basis, we are seeing record low inventory over the Winter. I’ll be watching to see if inventory follows the normal seasonal pattern and bottoms in February. Last year, inventory didn’t bottom until April.
...
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in January. Inventory was down 9.5% in January month-over-month (MoM) from December, and down 25.7% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally during the Winter, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 24.8% YoY, so the YoY decline in January is slightly larger than in December. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.

Notes for all tables:

New additions to table in BOLD.

Northwest (Seattle), North Texas (Dallas)

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/