by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2022 10:12:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 801 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up.

Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 801,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.5 percent below the revised December rate of 839,000 and is 19.3 percent below the January 2021 estimate of 993,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in January to 6.1 months from 5.6 months in December.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is at the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 406,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate."

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In January 2021 (red column), 64 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 77 thousand homes were sold in January.

The all-time high for January was 92 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for January was 21 thousand in 2011.

This was slightly below expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised up sharply. I'll have more later today.