by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2022 08:39:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 222 thousand from 223 thousand last week.

• Also, at 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.700 million SAAR, down from 1.702 million SAAR.

• Also, at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, down from 23.2.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	64.5%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	214.2	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	134,468	229,428	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	80,185	107,772	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	2,100	2,331	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are now declining.