by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2022 07:24:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for February. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.07 million SAAR in February 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.3% from the January sales rate, and down 11.7% from February 2021. 

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for February (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.  After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  

However, sales decreased late last year due to supply issues. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021, however sales in February were below the consensus forecast of 14.4 million SAAR.