by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2022 09:07:00 PM

My March Employment Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 575k in March (mom sa) ... we believe fierce competition for workers incentivized firms to pull forward recruiting activities earlier in the spring hiring season. We also note that short-term unemployment only partially reversed its Omicron spike with the February report, implying scope for additional rehiring in March. ... We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%
emphasis added

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 475,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.7%.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.6, unchanged from 58.6 in February.  

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in construction spending.

• All Day, Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.1 million SAAR in March, unchanged from 14.1 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	65.6%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	217.6	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	25,732	26,518	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	12,243	15,482	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	626	732	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are declining.