by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2022 08:44:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, February 2022:

Personal income increased $101.5 billion (0.5 percent) in February, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $76.1 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $34.9 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in February and Real PCE decreased 0.4 percent; goods decreased 2.1 percent and services increased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent
emphasis added

The February PCE price index increased 6.4 percent year-over-year and the November PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.4 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was at expectations, and the increase in PCE was below expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q1 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 1.9% annual rate in Q1 2022. (Using the mid-month method, PCE was increasing at 1.3%).