RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2022 09:17:00 AM
Monday, April 18, 2022
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of April 16th.
Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA since 2019 (Blue).
The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.
The 7-day average is down 9.5% from the same day in 2019 (90.5% of 2019). (Red line)
Air travel has been moving sideways over the last month, off about 10% from 2019.
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.
The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through April 14th.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $154 million last week, down about 15% from the median for the week.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $154 million last week, down about 15% from the median for the week.
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.
This data is through April 9th. The occupancy rate was down 4.7% compared to the same week in 2019.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is just above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will now mostly move sideways seasonally until the summer.
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).
Manhattan is at about 39% of normal.
This data is through Friday, April 15th.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
