by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2022 09:15:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2021. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 6.4% YoY, and core PCE prices up 5.3% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 62.0, down from 62.9 in March.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 65.7.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.1%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	219.6	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	53,133	42,426	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	10,803	9,909	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	334	352	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Deaths are declining week-over-week, but new cases and hospitalizations are increasing.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.