by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2022 01:54:00 PM

According to Reuters, quoting Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen:

She said inflation may have peaked in the United States, but cautioned that prices may remain elevated "for a while longer."

There are many drivers of inflation right now - supply chain issues, high energy and food prices, housing (Owners' Equivalent Rent will keep inflation high for some time) - to name a few. But it is possible, due to base effects, that inflation "may have peaked".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month increase in PCE and core PCE prices since January 2020.

Prices really picked up in March 2021, so when the PCE prices are released for March 2022 next week, the year-over-year change might be unchanged or even decrease as March 2021 is dropped from the calculation.

But, as Yellen notes, prices increase will likely remain elevated "for a while longer".