by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2022 10:31:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released this week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow Research: January 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Competitive Conditions

Though home sales have remained at elevated levels, rising mortgage rates, rapidly increasing home values, and fierce competition for listings may have some potential buyers rethinking whether they’re going to take the plunge into the market. Looking to the months ahead, competition between buyers will be intense. Homes that went pending this winter typically did so in less than two weeks, an unseasonably fast pace. For those hoping there would be a big enough wave of sellers listing their homes this spring to ease some of the most competitive conditions we’ve ever seen, there’s no sign yet of that being the case. New listings are coming onto the market below levels we’ve seen in the weeks leading up to the shopping season of years past. In the short term, it all adds up to what is looking to be another few months of a history-making for-sale market.

Annual growth in February as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate slightly in the 10-city index and remain unchanged in the national and 20-city indices. Monthly growth in February is expected to decelerate from January in the national and 10-city indices, and hold steady in the 20-city index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, April 26.
emphasis added

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 19.2% in February, unchanged from 19.2% in January.