by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2022 02:43:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in April, down 3.5% from March’s preliminary pace and down 6.5% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this April’s lower business day count compared to last April’s.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY % decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was significantly lower than was the case last month, and other indicators suggest the inventory in May will be up YOY.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 15.2% from last April.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Thursday, May 19, 2022, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 5.62 million SAAR.