by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2022 09:01:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 220 thousand up from 218 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2021 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.3% annualized in Q1, up from the advance estimate of -1.4%.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 1.9% decrease in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	66.6%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	221.1	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	104,399	99,215	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	19,724	16,965	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	288	273	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

New cases have more almost quadrupled from the recent low, and hospitalizations are increasing week-over-week.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.